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One of the main problems with
predictions of dangerousness is that the indicators often employed
are both static and dynamic. Static factors are those such as
age, offence history, childhood and family factors [Adair].
These factors are static because they are more or less permanent and
cannot be changed. Dynamic factors include such things as
attitudes, progress in treatment, and relationships. These
factors are dynamic because they can be changed, or are susceptible
to change depending on the offender's situation. When an
assessment is made, static factors may play an influential role in
determining the offender’s status, though dynamic factors might
counterbalance any adverse effects from the static factors. An
example of this would be an offender who has an extensive criminal
history and a poor upbringing in a family replete with
inter-generational crime, who now has a stable relationship with a
caring partner and the promise of employment on release. Any
heavy weighting afforded the static factors may unduly influence the
decision to keep this individual incarcerated even though the
dynamic factors would suggest he is more likely to succeed on
release.
In the past, predictions of
dangerousness relied heavily on the subjective interpretations of
individual clinicians that proved highly inaccurate owing to the
lack of guidelines [Ward], and the differences between clinicians on
theories behind the nature and causes of dangerous behaviour
[Montgomery]. Also, the theoretical orientation of the
practitioners might cause them to place a greater emphasis on some
factors over others simply owing to their professional orientation.
For example, a Freudian psychologist might consider the relationship
with the mother as a paramount consideration, while a cognitive
psychologist might consider the offender's thoughts and perceptions
as a more important factor.
As previously discussed, one factor that may affect the ability of
an individual to make an objective determination of dangerousness is
his exposure to certain types of cases. While a psychologist
may have exposure to a broad range of cases and clients, a
correctional counsellor (or anyone working in the prison system with
frequent exposure to offenders and offender behaviour) may have more
experience in making determinations of individual cases. It
should be noted that throughout this work, the terms
“professional” and “practitioner” are used fairly
generically and may in actuality refer to anyone from a psychologist
or psychiatrist, social worker or case manager, or prison counsellor
to parole officer.
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